Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
